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Pre-mortem

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Decision Making

Imagine failure before it happens to prevent it

A Pre-mortem, popularized by psychologist Gary Klein, is a technique where you imagine that a project or decision has already failed — and then work backward to figure out why. Unlike a post-mortem (which happens after failure), a pre-mortem happens before you start, giving you a chance to prevent failure.

How to use it

  1. Describe the plan — Lay out the project, decision, or initiative you're about to pursue.
  2. Imagine total failure — Fast-forward in time and assume the project has failed spectacularly. Don't hold back.
  3. Generate reasons for failure — Each team member independently writes down all the reasons why the project failed. Be specific and creative.
  4. Share and consolidate — Go around the room and collect all failure reasons. Group similar ones together.
  5. Prioritize the risks — Which failure modes are most likely? Which would be most damaging?
  6. Create preventive actions — For each top risk, define specific actions to prevent or mitigate it.
  7. Update your plan — Incorporate these preventive actions into the project plan.

Example

Project: Launch a new onboarding flow next month. Pre-mortem — "It's 3 months from now and the new onboarding completely flopped. Why?"
  • We didn't test with real users before launching
  • The engineering team was pulled onto a hotfix mid-sprint
  • We underestimated the complexity of the third-party integration
  • Customer support wasn't trained on the new flow
  • We didn't set up analytics to measure conversion
Preventive actions:
  • Schedule user testing in week 2
  • Ring-fence engineering capacity with leadership buy-in
  • Spike the integration this week to uncover unknowns
  • Book CS training session before launch
  • Set up analytics dashboard in parallel

Takeaway

The Pre-mortem gives you permission to voice concerns that might otherwise go unsaid. By imagining failure upfront, you surface risks early when they're still cheap to address.

Put this tool to practice

Apply the Pre-mortemto your own situation. Start with a real problem you're facing and work through the steps above.

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