When to use this combo
You face a major decision — entering a new market, hiring a key person, pivoting your product — and the stakes are high. You have incomplete data, and the consequences will play out over months or years.
Is this combo right for you?
Use this combo if you're a strategic, intuitive thinker who's comfortable with ambiguity. You know that not every situation can be analyzed with a spreadsheet, and you value understanding the nature of a problem before jumping to solutions. If you believe "first, understand what kind of game you're playing" — this is your approach.
Step-by-step walkthrough
Start with the Cynefin Framework to categorize the situation. Is it complicated (needs expert analysis) or complex (needs experimentation)? This determines your approach.
Apply Second-order Thinking to trace the consequences of each option. Ask "And then what?" repeatedly to uncover long-term ripple effects.
Run a Pre-mortem — imagine the decision has already failed spectacularly and work backward to identify what went wrong. Use those insights to strengthen your plan.